„What we practise on a small scale sets the pattern for the entire system.“ – Adrienne Maree Brown, emergent strategy / fractals

The beauty of small things

What strikes me in check-ins and conversations these days is the gap between the big picture and the little things of everyday life. It's a painful balancing act: we feel that the world out there urgently needs our attention, yet at the same time we are absorbed by the swarm of to-dos on our desk. The space in between is shrouded in fog. The thunder in the global sky makes our little things seem meaningless. But we don't choose between our desk and the world; instead, we are torn and unable to be fully present on either level.

The granularity of things is not necessarily the problem: the ability to act lies in concrete small steps; change begins with tiny cracks in the system. As so often, Bayo Akomolafe finds the right words to describe this:

„The world emerges with minor gestures written in the minor key. It’s not the categorical – it is the infinitesimally small, it’s the fleeting that brings about change.

In the best case scenario, the small things cast their shadow on the big picture – not the other way around. Fractal responsibility does not require massive leverage; we simply need to consciously align the swarm on the table in front of us and assign meaning to the patterns that emerge.

What is formulated here for the level of individual action also affects the development of organisational strategies.

A moving mosaic

Strategy always sounds a bit like adventure: a grand expedition, an ingenious plan, a secret door to new levels of success. Yet the closer you get to strategy, the more mundane it seems. Once it becomes concrete, it is often just a stone's throw away from a high-level to-do list. Why is that?

Nothing really changes if everyday practices and routines at work remain the same. The little things have a life of their own that needs to be understood and respected. One of the arts of strategy development is to have a vision of how these little things can form a new mosaic and develop into a new Gesamtkunstwerk, the exact shape of which may not yet be tangible.

In this sense, strategy implementation is more comparable to gardening than architecture: practices that do not bear fruit are scaled back (exnovation), while practices that are effective and show promise are strengthened and nurtured (innovation). This approach is based on continuous strategising – not on a cleverly written strategy paper.

Facilitating Emergence

If we understand strategy in this sense as a verb, who are the actors? Do we develop the system, or does the system develop with us in it? Do we decide on a plan to achieve our goals, or is strategy – as Henry Mintzberg puts it – simply „a pattern in the stream of decisions“? Does strategy belong in the world of design or in the world of emergence?

Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the middle: the essence of a strategy can best be seen in the rear-view mirror. It follows patterns that are deliberately developed but do not fully correspond to what was intended. Mintzberg's statement points out that we Agency have to make decisions, but that things definitely do not always go according to our script. It reminds us to take emergence seriously and not treat it as a disruptive factor in our sacred planning. This understanding of shared agency between system and designer lies at the heart of the development approach. Facilitating Emergence.

There are various ways to engage in this dual agency. Dave Snowden, for example, describes the concept of Wayshaping (as a practical application of constructor theory). Wayshaping means „changing the landscape itself, its potential and possibilities in such a way that desired paths emerge naturally (and thus sustainably) and undesirable ones become difficult or impossible“Wayshaping therefore focuses on modulating internal processes that structure and (re)produce the system. It works on the framework that aligns organisational behaviour.

A somewhat more abrupt variation on the same idea is pursued by the approach of the Promising Patterns. Here, it is not ranking systems that are directly influenced and continuously modulated, but rather emergent patterns of practice.

The strategy sandwich

The idea of Promising Patterns places emergence at the centre of a „strategic sandwich“:

The top slice of toast is the medium-term target level – the strategic intention (Strategic Intent). There are well-documented processes and methods for developing them. The strategic intent describes the qualities of the desired future, but is not intended to be a blueprint for solving all current problems.

Against the backdrop of the strategic intention and the resulting thrust, the middle layer of the sandwich is about discovering patterns (pattern gazingA pattern is a non-random order of elements in a system. It does not have to exhibit harmony or symmetry; nor are the regularities that constitute its order always immediately apparent. Patterns are best discovered with an open mind and without preconceptions.

In pattern recognition, we look for new clusters of practice that are just emerging and seem to work well in light of our strategic intent. Promising patterns can manifest themselves in topics that generate particular resonance; in interventions that show above-average impact and release energy and motivation; or in similarities between partnerships and projects that yield unexpectedly positive results. We are not looking for isolated events or outliers, but for the faint signals of a new, successful network of our practice. Pattern recognition is not a task for the boardroom; it is a task for everyone.

The bottom slice of toast of the Promising Patterns Strategy is the place of continuous gardening. In this layer, promising patterns are strengthened and multiplied. Patterns that prove ineffective, on the other hand, are dampened by throttling resource and energy flows. Step by step, the organisational mosaic thus takes on the qualities of the strategic intention.

The constant shifting of resources and attention that results from the strategising process also gives rise to new forms of organisation: breathing structures and provisional orders are part of everyday reality in Promising Patterns.

A special feature of this approach is the interweaving of analysis and intervention, of the present and the future. Many strategy processes draw on variations of SWOT logic. Typically, the capabilities of the organisation (strengths and weaknesses) and the dynamics of its environment (opportunities and risks) are examined in two separate steps. The Promising Patternsapproach combines both into one: a promising pattern indicates an emerging practice or capability that fits well with the emerging environment of the organisation. Promising patterns are places in the system where the presence of the desired future is visible.

What is different?

The architecture described is based on the approach of „Guided Evolution“ by Lechner & Bär (2008). In this process, strategic initiatives are guided through three phases: variation (initiation of a portfolio of promising initiatives), selection (distinguishing which initiatives should be strengthened and which should be terminated) and retention (anchoring successful initiatives in organisational routines).
The main difference between „guided evolution“ and the approach of Promising Patterns lies in the degree of intervention: while Guided Evolution is essentially a management concept that works with rehearsals and experiments (in Dave Snowden's words: with stimulated emergence), Promising Patterns is a facilitation concept – a continuous, appreciative exploration that harnesses the potential of naturally emergent innovation.

This quality sets it apart Promising Patterns also from the Opportunity-driven strategy (ODS). Opportunity-oriented development also focuses on emerging constellations in the (internal and external) environment, but here the aim is to identify relevant opportunities and prepare oneself to seize them. Such strategic approaches involve at least moderate risks and require a willingness to embrace entrepreneurial disruption. In the approach of Promising Patternsthe risks are lower and the changes are more subtle and fluid.

The question that naturally follows here is: Can the Promising Patterns Can this approach also bring disruption and profound transformation? Disruptive changes are often praised and admired – but they usually cause so much collateral damage that you can only afford them if you have deep pockets and the stamina to rebuild relationships. In contrast to radical change projects and major shifts in direction, such as those undergone by many companies and foundations over the last decade, strategic development based on Promising Patterns A continuous, gentle shift in practices that, when combined, bring about their own unique form of deep and lasting transformation.

Where drastic measures and quick fundamental decisions are required, we offer Promising Pattern and the approaches of the Facilitating Emergence Perhaps not the best answer. However, when transformation is pursued as a continuous organic process, the approach has great potential.

Original version (English) in lost-navigator.net