Complexity did not just come into being yesterday: social systems are, by definition, multi-layered and dynamic, i.e. complex. However, the borderline experience between dynamism and chaos in the coronavirus universe makes what is celebrated in contemporary management discourse as the „VUCA world“ (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) very tangible at present. The experience of uncertainty triggers contradictory reactions – on the one hand, a desire for control, on the other, resignation to fate.

Neither approach seems particularly helpful in the current situation: we must look ahead with an open mind and at the same time passionately shape the future. We must have a plan, but be radically open to adapting it. Civil society organisations in particular are called upon to perform this balancing act, calibrating their priorities and forms of action to the new challenges. The Strategy Pocket Lab presents a compact strategy format that combines elements of Liberating Structures (K. McCandless and H. Lipmanowicz), Transformative Scenario Planning (A. Kahane) and Opportunity-Oriented Development (P. Skat-Rørdam). In a half-day workshop, development needs are outlined, critical uncertainties and relevant environmental scenarios are examined, and the next strategic „move“ is derived. The Lab can be conducted as a live workshop or as an online session.

The approach is based on three fundamental principles:

Strategic steps instead of a master plan

The lab is deliberately not designed as a one-off venue for the big strategic move, but as a recurring element of a continuous strategy process („strategising“). In line with the agile strategy approach, each lab session (held quarterly or more frequently) represents a move towards a more favourable strategic position. It is about feeling your way forward, not about long-term planning. A shared compass – a vision or purpose statement – is a prerequisite for avoiding agile „mission drift“, i.e. opportunistically straying from the overarching purpose of existence. What this compass does not define is the roadmap, i.e. the direction of the major strategic lines. As in a game of chess, strategic moves are guided by the overarching purpose, but are made in line with internal and external developments. The overall strategic picture only emerges as a dynamic pattern in the sequence of moves. The approach is thus based on the principle described by Henry Mintzberg in his post-functionalist definition of strategy: „Strategy is a pattern in a stream of decisions“.

Adaptation and transformation

Traditionally, scenario planning explores possible future developments with a view to determining how we can successfully adapt to these different futures. Adaptive planning is undoubtedly more contemporary than old-school „long-range planning“; however, it neglects the possibility of actively influencing and thus changing the future. Based on Adam Kahane's ideas on transformative scenario planning, the Strategy Pocket Lab asks how we can influence the factors that give rise to the scenarios and thus contribute to the most positive future possible. Since a transformative approach takes time and begins with the development of our own attitudes and relationships, a pocket format hardly seems adequate for the task. The transformative attitude must therefore be reflected in the entire strategic approach: if it finds its place alongside adaptive questioning and helps shape strategic action as a whole, it will unfold its power. In concrete terms, this means fundamentally thinking of even those things we consider to be fixed as malleable in our strategy work: whether we can then change them with our organisation alone or only in broad alliances, whether we can shift the framework or only make a small contribution to expanding it, remains to be seen.

Opportunity and action orientation

The lab process comprises several rapid cycles of exploration (divergence) and intensification (convergence) and is geared towards a commitment to joint action. Each session ends with a clear decision on the next strategic step within a defined focus area. The core of the lab is based on the Critical Uncertainties method from the Liberating Structures approach. In particular, the often challenging connection between scenario exploration and strategic action in the sense of an opportunity-oriented approach was further developed: The guiding questions here are: What opportunities arise in light of the scenarios? What windows of opportunity do we see in which we can seize opportunities in line with our strategic goals? Strategic thinking and action orientation often appear to be at odds with each other: strategy implies a higher position, a viewpoint that looks ahead, detached from the details of everyday life. Action orientation implies a down-to-earth approach – a grounded attitude that looks forward from the here and now. The aim of the Strategy Pocket Lab is to create a fruitful exchange between these two positions. Who should participate? Strategy requires a diversity of perspectives. It should not be developed in closed board meetings or as a solitary management routine.

Of course, every meeting has an optimal number of participants. For the Strategy Pocket Lab, we consider the ideal group size to be 7–15 people who represent the perspectives of the entire organisation (i.e. programme staff, team leaders, management and board members). For larger organisations, it may be useful to appoint a delegated strategy group. Steps of the lab Preparation: Which area needs our attention? In a coordination process prior to the meeting, a rough definition of the field to be addressed is made. Strategy development is therefore not carried out for all functional areas of the organisation, but focuses on a manageable sub-aspect: for example, format development in a programme, the expansion of personnel acquisition strategies or the strategic development of partnerships in a field of action. Indications of possible need for action are provided by tensions and issues that repeatedly arise in meetings and work processes and are too big to be dealt with in the daily routine. When identifying focus areas, it can be useful to focus particularly on interfaces where the organisation is in direct contact with its environment. An internal moderation team is usually appointed for the workshop to methodically adapt and prepare the process.

1. Review – What is and what could be?

The meeting begins with a round of perspectives on the focused field: Why does this area need our attention right now? What is the goal of the strategy meeting (solving a specific problem, coordinating processes, seizing an opportunity, regaining momentum...)? In the next step, small groups engage in a visionary exchange on the highest potential of the field: What is the most exciting and inspiring future we can imagine for this area? Both steps are missing in many approaches to strategy work. Both the narrowing down of the strategy field (which is often perceived as an unacceptable trivialisation and imposition on the systemic view) and the positive framing bring a special quality to the process: a focused energy for action.

2. Systemic analysis – What are the critical uncertainties?

The second part of the lab begins with a brainstorming session on factors that have a strong influence on the chosen field of development. In addition to internal organisational factors, aspects from various STEP categories are included (socio-cultural factors, technological factors, economic factors and political factors). The factors should be specific, down-to-earth and not too global. Two factors are prioritised from the list using a points system. These factors are particularly unpredictable and have a high impact on the work in the focus area (in the language of Liberating Structures, these are „critical uncertainties“). The two factors span the axes of the scenario field to be created, which depicts four possible scenarios in the combination of characteristics (e.g. high regulatory density vs. low regulatory density on one axis and rising infection rates vs. slow decline in infection rates on the other axis). Finally, the group members use game pieces to mark how they assess the current situation and the most likely development in 12-18 months in the scenario field.

3. Exploring the scenarios – What lies ahead?

In the third part of the lab, all plausible scenarios (i.e. all scenarios that were considered conceivable in the previous step) are explored further. To this end, small groups discuss two sets of questions:

• Scenario description: What does our field look like in this scenario? What do we and the people we interact with experience? What would be an appropriate title for the scenario? (References to film and book titles are useful here, for example). It is important not to paint a black-and-white picture at this point, even if the polarities of the factors sometimes suggest best-case and worst-case scenarios. It is also about grey areas, about the good in the difficult and the difficult in the good.
• Strategic options: How does this reality affect our work, and what can we do to be prepared for the opportunities and risks in this scenario? What do we need to do to adapt to this future? What can we do to contribute to the positive aspects of this scenario? The scenario descriptions and strategic options are shared and discussed. This part concludes with a few minutes of silent reflection to allow participants to personally process what they have heard.

4. Strategic action – What is our next step?

In newly mixed groups, possible strategic steps that make sense in the various scenarios are now discussed. What are the biggest risks we should protect ourselves against? What are the biggest opportunities we should prepare for? What do we need to do to make better use of these opportunities? What is our next step? Finally, the proposals are evaluated in plenary using two „currencies“:

• Strategy points indicate: „I consider this action to be particularly useful in light of our strategic goal.“.
• Energy points indicate: „I am personally prepared to invest energy in this action.“.

Ideally, projects should be agreed upon that have received points in both currencies, i.e. that are considered meaningful and motivating. The agreement results in the commissioning of a task force to develop the planned activities and initiate their implementation.

The lab ends ceremoniously with a round of toasts to the golden future.

The Strategy Pocket Lab was developed by members of the Civil Society Toolbox Core Team in collaboration with SOCIUS Organisationsberatung gGmbH and MitOst e.V., with support from the IAC/Bosch Alumni Network. The method can be used and adapted in accordance with Creative Commons principles. Templates for Miro are available via SOCIUS.

Sources

• Keith McCandless and Henri Lipmanowicz (2014): The Surprising Power of Liberating Structures: Simple Rules to Unleash A Culture of Innovation http://www.liberatingstructures.com
• Adam Kahane (2015): Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future https://ssir.org/books/excerpts/entry/transformative_scenario_planning_working_t ogether_to_change_the_future
• Peter Skat-Rørdam (1999): Changing Strategic Direction. Practical insights into opportunity-driven business development
• Toolkit for civil society https://civilsocietytoolbox.org